Tropical Storm Bertha looks like it will swing south and hit northern France rather than Cornwall, after a change of direction.
The storm is likely to become an ‘extra tropical storm’ today as it starts to track across the Atlantic – and while the Met Office says "there are still a number of possible outcomes", it looks increasingly likely that the UK will miss any serious impacts from ‘ex Bertha’.
A spokesman said: "The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast model alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.
"At the moment the majority of forecasts from those models suggest ex Bertha will track to the south of the UK as a relatively weak low pressure system.
"In fact it’s debatable whether this is even ex Bertha, as the storm declines to such an extent as it comes across the Atlantic that it fragments.
"Some of the warm air which it drags across then leads to a new weak low which generates an area of heavy rain. This could move across northern France and possibly clip eastern parts of the UK on Sunday.
"A much smaller number of model outcomes suggest ex Bertha will move across the UK as a more distinct feature which could bring some strong winds and heavy rain. Because these outcomes are in a minority, however, they are less likely.
"While there remains a good deal of uncertainty about the weather on Sunday, it currently looks as if it will be fairly unsettled with some rain and breezy conditions – but nothing too unusual for the time of year."