Coronavirus infections in the south west are expected to grow at more than double the rate of what is predicted nationally.

This was the latest information from the government and SAGE (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) in its update this lunchtime.

While the UK's predicted growth rate has fallen week-on-week, in the south west it has grown slightly, with the infection now expected to rise by between +4 per cent and +7 per cent each day - up one per cent on last week's margins.

Conversely, the growth rate range for the UK is now +1 per cent to +3 per cent, while in the north west the number of new infections could actually be shrinking, with a growth rate of -1 per cent to +1 per cent. Details for all the regions can be found below.

There is no change in the south west's reproduction number - or 'R' - however, meaning that SAGE believes every person with the virus will go on to infect between 1.2 and 1.4 extra people.

The UK has an R number of 1.0 to 1.2.

Currently, Cornwall specifically has a weekly rate of 72.8 cases per 100,000 people, with 416 cases confirmed in the seven days leading up to November 8.


SAGE has issued a note of caution, to say: "Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK level estimates are less meaningful than previously.

"When the numbers of cases or deaths are at low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate.

"For example, a significant amount of variability across a region due to a local outbreak may mean that a single average value does not accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout that region.

"It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable, and that there is still growth of the epidemic in England.

"These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare.

"Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range."

Latest by NHS England regions

These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.

Region R Growth rate % per day

England 1.1-1.2 +1 to +4

East of England 1.1-1.4 +2 to +5

London 1.0-1.2 0 to +3

Midlands 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5

North East and Yorkshire 1.0-1.2 +1 to +3

North West 0.9-1.1 -1 to +1

South East 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6

South West 1.2-1.4 +4 to +7