New cases of coronavirus in the south west are expected to fall at a more rapid pace according to the latest data from the government.

The weekly Friday figures from the Government and SAGE (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) were updated this lunchtime and they show a further drop in both the reproduction and growth rate for the region.

They now believe that in the south west the virus could start to shrink by as much as -4 per cent each day.

The estimated growth rate is now between -4 per cent and 0 per cent, meaning the experts believe the worst that will happen is that the number of new infections stays static but is more likely to start dropping.

SAGE said that the "true values are likely to lie within this range."

This is a better position than last week, when the estimates were for a fall of -2 per cent through to a potential growth still of +2 per cent - albeit at a much slower rate than previously.


Similarly, the south west's reproduction number, or R, is now between 0.7 and 1.0. This is the average number of people that every one person with the virus is expected to then go on to infect - and means that SAGE believes not everyone with the virus will definitely infect at least one other person.

It is down from the 0.9 and 1.1 of last week.

The current estimate growth for the virus by the Government and SAGE for the UK as a whole is now between -3 per cent per cent and -1 per cent each day, meaning they expect the virus to continue to shrink more quickly this week, with an R number range of 0.8 to 1.0.

As of last night (Thursday), Cornwall specifically has a weekly rate of 27.5 cases per 100,000 people, which is more than half the rate of last Friday when there were 59.1 cases per 100,000 people and half a point off 70 per cent down on two weeks ago.

There were 157 cases in the seven days leading up to November 28,

There were 338 cases in the seven days leading up to November 22 - a drop of 181 cases week-on-week.


SAGE said this week: "It is SAGE’s expert view that this week’s estimates are reliable.

"These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare.

"Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range."

These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.

Region R Growth rate % per day

England 0.8-1.0 -3 to 0

East of England 0.9-1.0 -2 to +1

London 0.9-1.1 -1 to +1

Midlands 0.8-0.9 -4 to -1

North East and Yorkshire 0.7-0.9 -5 to -3

North West 0.7-0.9 -5 to -3

South East 0.9-1.1 -2 to +1

South West 0.7-1.0 -4 to 0