New cases of coronavirus are expected to rise faster in the south west that anywhere in the UK.

This is the latest estimate from the Government and SAGE in the most recent update on the R number and growth rate.

The south west now has the highest growth rate out of all regions of England and also in the UK overall.

SAGE now expects new cases to grow between +2 per cent and +8 per cent every day.

This is compared to a growth rate of 0 per cent and +6 per cent for the UK as a whole and is also higher than the south east and London, where cases were previously spiralling, but both now have a growth rate of +1 per cent and +6 per cent.

The south west also has the highest rate of reproduction - or R number - out of anywhere, at 1.1 to 1.5.

It means that every one person with the virus is expected to pass it on to between 1.1 and 1.5 other people - or for every ten people with it, a further 11 to 15 people are also likely to get it.

The UK R number is 1.0 to 1.4, which is the same as the north west, while all other regions are 1.1 to 1.4.

SAGE warns: "The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over very different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.

"Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK level estimates are less meaningful than previously."

However, it goes on to add: "It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable.

"These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms, and needing healthcare.

"Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range."

Specifically in Cornwall, the number of cases since the start of the pandemic has now risen to 8,310 as of 4pm yesterday (Friday, January 8), following a further 412 new cases being recorded - a new record high for Cornwall.


These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.

Region R Growth rate % per day

England 1.1 to 1.4 +1 to +6

East of England 1.1 to 1.3 +1 to +6

London 1.1 to 1.4 +1 to +6

Midlands 1.1 to 1.4 +1 to +7

North East and Yorkshire 1.1 to 1.4 +1 to +6

North West 1.0 to 1.4 0 to +6

South East 1.1 to 1.4 +1 to +6

South West 1.1 to 1.5 +2 to +8