FOUR of Cornwall's six Tory MPs are predicted to lose their seats in the next general election according to data from the Electoral Calculus, with a new campaign also labeling two of them as 'tragedy seats.'

In the predictions from the Electoral Calculus, both Labour and the Lib Dems are predicted to take seats in Cornwall from the Conservatives at the next general election, with two of the seats expected to be decisive in determining the outcome.

Win As One, a new campaign from pressure group Compass, says it has highlighted 62 vulnerable seats across the country - including five in the South West - where support for progressive parties outnumbered support for regressive parties at the last general election, but the Tories still won.

These seats - labeled ‘tragedy seats' by Compass - will be decisive in determining the outcome of the next election, it says. 

Falmouth and Truro and St Ives, West Cornwall and The Isles of Scilly are the two seats being described as 'tragedy seats,' with both Derek Thomas and Cherilyn Mackrory predicted by the campaign to lose them to other parties, according to data from the Electoral Calculus.

The data predicts Truro and Falmouth MP, Cherilyn Mackrory, to have only a 9% chance of retaining the seat, with Labour predicted to have a 90% chance of winning it from the Tories.

The Lib Dems are predicted as having a 55% of winning the St Ives, West Cornwall and The Isles of Scilly seat from Derek Thomas MP, and George Eustice, MP for Camborne and Redruth, is predicted to lose his seat to Labour, with the opposition party predicted to have an 86% chance of winning.

St Austell and Newquay MP, Steve Double is also predicted to lose his seat, with Labour being predicted as having a 64% chance of unseating the Conservatives.

Sheryll Murray, MP for South East Cornwall, and Scott Mann, MP for Cornwall North, are the only conservatives predicted to keep their seats, with Murray's chance of winning predicted to be 55% and Mann's predicted at 64%.

A YouGov survey, commissioned by Compass, which surveyed 1,568 adults in England and Wales, suggests growing frustration with the UK's first-past-the-post system and its perceived inability to deal with the crises engulfing the nation:

  • 51% say on the critical issue of climate the system is unable to address the challenges we face
  • 50% don’t think the system can address inflation and the economy
  • 63% don’t believe it can address immigration and where some
  • 63% starkly say our politics is failing on wealth inequality
  • 64% say the system isn’t able to cope with the housing crisis.

This disillusionment with our political system, according to Compass, has led to support for Proportional Representation (PR) reaching a new high, with 56% of the public now backing reform of the UK's voting system. 

Neal Lawson, spokesperson for Win as One said: "The public is clear - our political system isn’t working, and it has to change. Whether on issues of climate, inequality or economic justice, voters think that our two-party system has failed them and is failing our future.

"They want a new way of doing politics - and believe progressive parties should work together to win the next election and deliver real change.

"There is now an undeniable demand from the country - not only for a new government but a new political system.

"This polling stands as a clear warning and lesson to a Labour Party that is refusing to back PR and unwilling to work with others.

"This poll shows overwhelming voter dissatisfaction with the way the two-party system is failing.

"Ignoring this risks putting the party on the wrong side of the public - and history."

The Packet has reached out to all six Cornwall MPs for their thoughts on the predictions and voting reform. 

Compass is a centre-left pressure group that describes itself as a "home for those who want to build and be a part of a Good Society; one where equality, sustainability and democracy are not mere aspirations, but a living reality."

It goes on to add that it is "founded on the belief that no single issue, organisation or political party can make a Good Society a reality by themselves so we have to work together to make it happen."